The future of mobile? Bright but cloudy

Tuesday evening saw the London launch of IDATE’s 2014 version of their DigiWorld Yearbook, an excellent guide to telecoms, Internet and media markets. It was a useful opportunity to catch up with emerging trends in the mobile world and the over-the-top services that are changing our lifestyles and challenging our security. So what did I learn?

IIDATE (not the Internet dating agency) is a European think tank represented by around 50 major players in the digital economy, largely vendors, regulators, and, refreshingly, a few French banks. Interestingly for security professionals, the UK branch is chaired by Steve Durbin who is also Managing Director of the Information Security Forum.  

The Yearbook reveals that global digital markets have shown “growth in slow motion” (3.3%) though European revenues remain in decline, perhaps reflecting a weak economic climate and inefficiencies in a fragmented supply side. Emerging markets are well up of course and not held back by legacy infrastructure.

Delving further into the numbers we can see an overall growth of 20% in Internet services, with the strongest growth in social media sites, mobile apps and video services. The Cloud is also a star, with high growth and revenues (up 30%) and accounting for a quarter of online revenue.

Clearly customers in mature markets are getting picky and vendors being squeezed despite a strong appetite for bandwidth and mobile services. What are the issues for Europe?  Three things according to Anne Bouverot, Director General of the GSM Association. Firstly spectrum: there isn’t enough and it takes a decade to transform. Secondly taxation: it’s far too high and runs counter to digital inclusion. And thirdly consolidation: it’s needed to extend services and reduce costs.  

How does an investment bank view such a business environment? Very positively according to Jeffrey Krogh, a tech-savvy BNP Paribas director. Slow growth means companies need to cooperate and take out cost, which sets the scene for convergence. He believes we’re just at the beginning of a wave of radical consolidation.

What about 5G? What is it and when is it coming? The answer is that we don’t yet know but it has to be different and much more than 4G. The UK Ministry of Culture is planning to launch a consultation paper in July.        

So much uncertainty, as well as so many red herrings. What about those clever Google ideas about balloons and drones? Not so smart on closer inspection according to Anne Bouverot. Balloons get blown about in three dimensions which is not good for service delivery. And the site of a drone is likely to terrify citizens in many emerging countries. 

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