2026: Prepare for a year of uncertainty
What a start to 2026. Deloitte’s 74th quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) and group finance directors of major companies in the UK revealed that geopolitics and poor UK productivity/weak competitiveness are the top external risks they face in the coming year.
The survey was conducted in December. Now the US has taken over Venezuela and is ramping up the debate on its ambitions to have Greenland. The more aggressive US foreign policy is something that is set to impact all businesses and will likely influence how IT leaders help their organisations navigate the upheavals that are set to occur this year.
Last week, as world leaders digested the regime change in Venezuela and the White House’s attention turning to Greenland, the US Treasury department announced it had reached an agreement with more than 145 countries in the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework to have US-headquartered companies remain subject to only US global minimum taxes while exempting them from Pillar 2, which establishes a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% for large multinational enterprises in every jurisdiction where they operate.
In what is being seen as an erosion of international cooperation, Zorka Milin, policy director at Fact, the financial accountability and corporate transparency coalition, said: “The Trump administration has chosen to prioritise maintaining rock-bottom taxes for big corporations to the detriment of ordinary Americans and our allies across the globe.”
There is a sense that under the guise of “making America great again”, the Trump administration is prepared to disregard international law and treaties to ensure the continued success of the mega US corporations. And these corproations that are benefiting are the very ones organisations around the world rely on for IT and technology infrastructure.
Regulators outside of the US are being positioned as discriminatory against US firms.
In a post on X, the US Trade Representative (USTR) called out “discriminatory and harassing lawsuits, taxes, fines, and directives” against US technology service providers.
The USTR post stated: “If the EU and EU Member States insist on continuing to restrict, limit, and deter the competitiveness of US service providers through discriminatory means, the United States will have no choice but to begin using every tool at its disposal to counter these unreasonable measures.”
The USTR made it clear that among the actions it could take include “the assessment of fees or restrictions on foreign services”. It said it would also take a similar approach to other countries that pursue an EU-style regulations strategy.
What is clear is that the world is now very different. There is uncertainty, and uncertainty will need to be baked into everyone’s IT plans for 2026.