6G networks predicted to need 3x spectrum to meet surging data demands

A report from the GSMA has shown that frequency allocation is vital, with near-term government decisions needed to avoid future spectrum bottlenecks so that consumers and businesses can benefit from a 6G world.

Compiled by analysts at GSMA Intelligence and the global mobile trade association’s global spectrum team, the Vision 2040: Spectrum for the future of mobile connectivity report is designed to provide guidance to regulators and policymakers as the mobile industry prepares for wide-scale 6G deployments from 2030.

6G mobile networks are generally regarded to become commercialised by the end of the decade, but to date, there is a notable lack of technical standards for what 6G will comprise.

The report showed that 6G networks are expected to begin commercial deployment in 2030, with significant early roll-outs in China, Japan, South Korea, the US, the GCC states, Europe, Vietnam and India. By 2040, the study forecasts that there will be more than five billion 6G connections, around half of all mobile connections globally, and that 4G and 5G will remain essential, with around two billion 4G and three billion 5G connections still in use.

Based on the study’s demand scenarios, global mobile traffic is forecast to reach 1,700 EB/month in the low-growth scenario and 3,900 EB/month in the high-growth scenario by 2040. This equates to 140–360GB per mobile connection per month.

The GSMA believes traffic growth will be driven by continued 5G adoption, increasing numbers of “power users” and new 6G-enabled applications including XR, integrated sensing and autonomous systems. The 10% of mobile users that generate 60–70% of total traffic today will increase over time, and the report notes that this level of usage will become “normal behaviour” by 2040.

Yet the GSMA warns that countries must act now to secure enough spectrum for 6G, or risk slower speeds, rising congestion and lost economic opportunity in the 2030s. It notes that without early government planning, consumers could face poorer connectivity, businesses may struggle to adopt new technologies and national digital economies could lose competitiveness in the global transition to 6G.

Moreover, the report stressed that it was crucial for governments to begin planning as they negotiate future mobile bands ahead of the WRC-27 treaty conference held by the International Telecommunication Union in 2027, otherwise, dense urban areas, where 83% of mobile traffic is concentrated, could face slower speeds, rising congestion and missed economic opportunities as 6G rolls out from 2030.

Taking into account projected traffic, expected improvements in spectral efficiency and modelling of dense urban capacity, the study concludes that a global average of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum will be needed per country in 2035–2040 to meet capacity demands, with higher demand countries needing 2.5-4 GHz. The current average is below 1GHz for mobile use. Therefore, an additional 1–3 GHz may be required to meet 6G-era demand.

The report identified four key candidate mid-bands under study for future mobile use: 3.8–4.2 GHz, +200–400 MHz; 4.4–4.99 GHz, +400–600 MHz; upper 6 GHz (6.425–7.125 GHz), +700 MHz; and 7.125–8.4 GHz, +600–1,275 MHz.

The GSMA noted that each band has existing incumbents, meaning long-lead-time planning was essential for analysing spectrum use and release, device ecosystem development and global harmonisation.

“This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today, said GSMA chief regulatory officer John Giusti.

“Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow,” he said. “I hope this report provides useful insights to governments as they strive to meet the connectivity needs of their citizens in the coming decade.”