Quake impact on IT industry may linger into 2012, says Gartner
Although the impact of the 11 March earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, Japan, has not impacted the electronics manufacturing industry as much as was initially feared, there may still be some residual effects in Q3 and beyond, according to Gartner.
The disaster and continuing nuclear crisis had raised concerns about the supply of silicon wafers, batteries and other components, but heightened awareness of supply chain constraints in the wake of the recession meant vendors were at first better able to insulate themselves.
However, Gartner principal research analyst Peter Middleton said that despite having come through the initial shock relatively unscathed, there was still the possibility of some residual effects in Q3 and beyond.
"Once third-quarter trends are established and supply chain participants are satisfied that all issues are understood and production is normalised, we expect an effort to draw down inventory, which will weaken the semiconductor market in late 2011 and early 2012," he said.
The latest semiconductor stats from Gartner suggest that worldwide application-specific standard product (ASSP) sales will reach $79.7bn (£49.12bn) by the end of the year and will grow to $99.4bn by 2015.
The application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) market will also show an upward trend over the next four years thanks to Apple's investment in the sector and its "commanding grip" on the mobility sector.
The mobility market will in fact account for two thirds of semiconductor revenue growth through 2013 as demand for smartphones and tablets continues unabated, said Gartner.
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