sakkmesterke - stock.adobe.com
Where the channel is going in 2026
It’s a good time to look deep into the crystal ball and pull out some ideas of what could happen over the next 12 months
If you were to make some predictions about what the year ahead might hold, then there are a few obvious contenders, with artificial intelligence (AI) at the top of the list, along with the continued need for security, and you can rest assured consolidation across all tiers of the channel will continue.
But along with those bets, there are a few emerging ideas that are harder to call, but could have a significant impact this year.
Starting with one of those, it’s going to be a year when the idea of what a managed service provider (MSP) looks like undergoes some scrutiny. At the heart of things, AI is changing the way MSPs interact with customers, and as a result, how they charge and tier their services.
A query handled by an AI agent might not be seen by the customer to have the same billable value as a session with an engineer. There are already signs that the channel is trying to work out what this will all mean, and the acronyms are emerging to describe those changes. Pax8 came up with the managed intelligence provider (MIP), and others have talked about outcome as a service, but you can expect more discussion around this over the course of 2026.
The other topic that is incredibly difficult to form predictions around is the economics of the channel in 2026. There had been hopes that a peace deal might be signed between Ukraine and Russia, but that is still some way off. The Middle East continues to simmer and threaten to boil over into conflict, and then there are the moves made by US president Donald Trump to “run” Venezuela and continue to threaten other leaders in South America and Greenland. The message for the channel last year was to find a way to be resilient despite the crises, and that will remain in place. Given that economic cycles operate, we are perhaps due a better year after a fairly mediocre time in the past few.
The other great question is whether there will be something new to talk about this year. The IT world loves coming up with a fresh technology, but in recent times, it has largely been riffs on the established themes of cloud, security, AI and networking. It could be exciting if something emerges that generates new opportunities for the channel and adds to the list of technologies that create revenue.
CES in Vegas at the start of the year felt too familiar, with driverless cars still taking the limelight, but there could be something else coming this year.
AI, security and consolidation
Where it gets easier is talking about AI, security and consolidation. Those three will take up plenty of headlines over the next 12 months.
With an increasing number of customers becoming comfortable with the idea of agentic AI, the year will see the deployment of more agents and the development of more channel services in that area.
The beauty for partners is that there is already talk of “AI sprawl”, and so there will be opportunities not only to design, deploy and secure AI systems, but then to come back with help managing them as they expand. The talk has been of 2024 being a year of investigation, and then last year was a time for deployment. In reality, that AI roll-out is going to happen over the course of the coming years, so 2026 on the AI front will again be about case studies, security and roll-outs.
You only need to look at those channel players that concentrate on security, cloud and networking, such as Westcon and Exclusive Networks, to appreciate the benefits of operating in those areas. Chief among them is the need to protect data and help customers remain compliant. That pressure will not diminish this year, and there will be more M&S and Co-op examples that send shivers down the spines of CIOs everywhere. For the channel, the case is that those with the skills, expertise, and right distribution and vendor relationships should be set for a decent year. The needs to protect data, reduce the risks generated by AI and prevent customers from becoming a headline all remain in place.
Another theme that continues is that of consolidation, with the channel remaining an active M&A zone targeted by private equity. The trend has been for managed service providers to be snapped up or to be a target of private equity money, and there are no reasons why that should change. Already this year, there have been moves by the likes of Computacenter, TXP and 11:11 to bolster their services and technology capabilities. What might well emerge is a taste from those expanding to target businesses that have developed AI skills to cover off that side of the market.
Finally, there are things that you hope will happen, including a continued commitment to sustainability and diversity, and the continued recognition the channel deserves.
The idea of sustainability has taken a kicking, largely thanks to the winds of uninterest that are blowing across the Atlantic. But the ambition to reduce carbon emissions continues to be one held by a great many across the channel, and despite some denial in high office elsewhere, the threat to the planet remains. This year will see the annual progress reports come out from the likes of Logicalis and others, and the move to work across the industry to tackle Scope 3 emissions still needs to be done.
Diversity, equity and inclusion
Another topic that has been damaged by the approach taken by Trump is diversity, equity and inclusion. The past few years have seen the channel work hard to increase diversity and make the industry a more attractive proposition as a career destination for a larger range of people. It would be a tragedy if those efforts were undermined and backwards steps were taken, risking the channel returning to being white male-dominated. Sometimes at industry events, it feels like there has not been as much progress as hoped, so more needs to be done this year.
You can dip into reports from the Global Technology Distribution Council or the GTIA to get a sense of the importance of the contribution made by the channel to businesses across the world.
The old adversarial direct versus indirect has dissipated over the past few years, but there continue to be numerous channel organisations that regularly go the extra mile and don’t get the recognition. If you cast your mind back to the pandemic, there were numerous examples of where resellers, MSPs and distributors had literally kept the lights on and the medical machines working. That sort of effort still happens, and it would be good if this year saw more recognition of the contribution made by the channel.
Elsewhere, you can expect the Windows 11 refresh that has been driving PCs to continue to run its course in the first half. The pressure for customers to get on top of their data and introduce some structure to enable AI roll-outs will keep the storage world occupied; and even before most of us have been able to use 5G, the talk will be of 6G and beyond to keep the ball rolling on the comms front.
Digital workspaces will continue to be an area where the channel can make some money. It might not be as pressured as it was when, post-Covid, everyone thought the working world had changed forever. But staff want to work in digital workspaces that are smart and foster increased productivity.
Finally, with a World Cup coming this summer, you would hope for England and Scotland to go all the way and meet in the final, but perhaps that’s a prediction too far.
