Summary
Bullets:
- · Cisco's Q3 earnings report statement is impressive and trendsetting
- · Wireless bandwidth expansion needs more QoS, to improve profitability
Cisco delivered a neat and fast Q3 (Feb-April)
financial result last week (http://newsroom.cisco.com/release/1190049/Cisco-Reports-Third-Quarter-Earnings?utm_medium=rss),
marking its ninth consecutive record revenue quarter, and generally
outdoing market expectations. The results were presented by the captain, remarking
that 'Cisco is executing at a very high level in a slow, but steady economic
environment'. The Q3 revenue figure of $12.2bn is 5.4% better than last year,
and twice what the company delivered in Q3 2005 - so, steady yes, but slow, not
at all.
Cisco has always been a great bellwether for trends in the WAN
infrastructure and the global networking dynamics. Earnings in its largest product segments,
switching and routing, are overall flat, whereas its data center UCS and the
integrated Nexus switches jumped 77%, its wireless business grew 27%, and its service
provider video product sales increased
by 30%. Driving these growth areas is the continued growth in cloud services traffic,
and the mega data centre nodes delivering the cloud services. The continued
shift to wireless is no surprise either, whereas the strong growth in video product
sales may indicate that this slow-growth UCC video component along with more
interactive consumer cable solutions, are finally taking off.
Looking at
the regional performance, Europe and Asia/Pacific revenues were flat, whereas
the US grew 7% and Emerging Markets shot up 13%. With Huawei sales more or less deep-frozen on the US market due to security
concerns, Cisco is having a field day there - and even managed an 8% growth in
China!
Cisco's
rock-steady 20 year growth record in the network infrastructure business may
appear smooth (almost IBM-like) on the surface, but relies on a willingness to
make seismic-shift business choices in its core business. The strong Q3 results
owe a lot to successful shifts in its enterprise customer space, notably its entry
into the UCC market with UCS, and development of its converged Nexus line.
Conversely, Cisco investments in the consumer space (remember Flip and more
recently Linksys?) have generally not gone well.
Looking at
the Q3 balance sheet, what trend lines emerge, and how does this performance
reflect changes in global WAN infrastructure (not overlooking the fact that
some, geographies are still stuck in the economic doldrums)?
One
indicator is to look at what Cisco has recently acquired and what the company proposes
to acquire in the near future. Recent acquisitions include Intucell, Ltd., a provider of advanced
self-optimizing network (SON) software products that enable mobile carriers to
plan, configure, manage, optimize, and heal cellular networks automatically,
according to changing network demands. It has also added Cognitive Security, headquartered in Prague, Czech Republic, to its
security portfolio; with an integrated range of software technologies to
identify and analyze key IT security threats through advanced behavioral
analysis of real-time data. On the acquisition roadmap is SolveDirect headquartered in Vienna, Austria that provides cloud-delivered
services management integration software and services; and Ubiquisys, a long-time Cisco partner, providing intelligent 3G and
long-term evolution (LTE) small-cell and femtocell technologies that provide
seamless connectivity across mobile heterogeneous networks for service
providers.
Apart from all these companies being European, they are all
in Cisco's high-margin business areas, and will be able to support Cisco's growth
trajectory: enhancing the wireless infrastructure, delivering real-time network
security, offering cloud delivered service management, and LTE wireless network
end-points.
The Cisco enterprise and carrier product and service lines appear
to be merging more and more - be it private cloud, hybrid or carrier/IT service
provider clouds delivering everything-as-a-service. The strategic direction
chosen is clearly to optimize and secure the end-user experience.
However, we are still not seeing any closer service links
across the fast growing wireless LTE infrastructure. Could Cisco provide QoS
across its wireless links to support latency sensitive cloud based ERP apps?
Could this be deployed and monetized by Cisco's carrier and IT service provider
customers? In many instances the enterprise customers are much more interested
in solid and predictable network performance than in lots of best-effort,
fluctuating bandwidth, LTE or otherwise. Clearly, the acquisition strategy that
Cisco is pursuing will bring more and more capabilities to build an end-to-end wireless
service delivery capability. Getting the acquired technologies and platforms
aligned and integrated in a heterogeneous WAN environment will be an arduous
task - but if not Cisco driven, then who could step up to the plate?
In its account relationships with carriers and IT service
providers, it will be key for Cisco to have a very clear well-documented view
of enterprise customer priorities, when proposing significant (or even massive)
infrastructure investments. But such deliberations seem urgently needed as the recent
spate of wireless infrastructure investments seem driven by consumers insatiable
bandwidth appetites. But margins in that cutthroat business are low. Focusing
on enterprise grade wireless services may well deliver more value.













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