US comms on verge of tipping point

The fundamental dynamics of the US communications market are changing, with former mainstay cable expected to lose 6.5 million subscribers as fibre grows, and 5G networks projected to surpass LTE in 2025, with over half of all subscriptions and a booming mobile sector driven by an increase in internet of things (IoT) connections and a growing appetite for premium 5G plans, says research from PwC.

The industry analyst’s Global entertainment and media outlook report for 2025 charted the growth and expansion of the highly dynamic entertainment and media industry, of which communications is a basic element. Overall, E&M’s total revenues are expected to grow at a 3.7% CAGR through 2029 to total $3.5tn, with new modes of value creation and technology shaping the future.

Drilling deeper into the key technologies underpinning this revolution, the study found that cable modem is the dominant broadband technology in the US, with 81.2 million subscriptions at the end of 2024, and is expected to retain its market position over the five-year forecast. However, the PwC study found that cable’s dominance is declining due to the growth of several other technologies, in particular fibre and fixed wireless access (FWA).

By the end of 2029, cable is forecast to have 74.7 million subscriptions. During the same period, fibre is expected to grow 50.4% from 36.1 million to reach 54.3 million by the end of 2029. This growth is expected to come from organic buildout from operators, the use of wholesale agreements with open access providers, and a variety of private and public funding (such as the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment programme, referred to as BEAD) to expand fibre coverage and, subsequently, fibre subscriptions in the US.

On top of this, PwC noted that FWA – led by T-Mobile and Verizon, but including others as well – is also chipping away at cable’s dominance. FWA is forecast to have the highest growth rate over the next five years at 76.8%, though it is not expected to become a leading technology in the US.

Cable will continue to be the dominant technology for the foreseeable future, while fibre is expected to see the greatest growth in absolute terms. Fibre is projected to add 18.2 million net additions over the five-year forecast, compared with 10.3 million for FWA. Fibre growth is expected to be propelled by investment from leading operators like AT&T to small operators like wireless internet service providers. PwC also noted that BEAD currently favours fibre technology.

The financial implications of these trends are that broadband revenues are forecast to grow 21.1% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2029. The study highlights that this growth coincides with continued growth in subscriptions, as well as the continued value attached to a fixed broadband connection and a reliable technology, such as fibre, which often comes with higher spend.

In the mobile segment, 5G is expected to become the dominant mobile technology in the US in 2025, ending the year with a forecasted 51.4% share of subscriptions. Market analyst Omdia expects the adoption to be swift over the next few years. 5G penetration is expected to rise to 84.7% by 2029.

The report stresses that market factors make it ripe for adoption. It observes that 5G coverage is ubiquitous and available with virtually all current service plans. Given that most smartphones are also 5G-capable today, when a customer upgrades their device, they are likely to become a 5G customer if they aren’t already.

5G smartphones also exist at a variety of price points to accommodate various budgets. After having largely completed their initial 5G network builds, peak network investment for US operators is said to have taken place in 2022.

Mobile service revenues are forecast to grow 20% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2029. This is greater growth than was seen over the previous five years, when service revenues grew 17%.

The higher revenue growth is expected from continued growth in subscriptions, both from IoT and non-IoT uses. The latter may have low average revenue per user, but the number of connections is expected to grow significantly, especially later in the forecast.