Accelerated fibre deployments to take broadband tech spend to $20.1bn by 2028

A shift in the broadband market towards artificial intelligence (AI)-driven converged platforms and personalised services, with success increasingly tied to user experience rather than just speed, will lead to a boom in equipment spending, according to research from the Dell’Oro Group.

The analyst’s Broadband access and home networking five-year forecast report predicts that the broadband access equipment market will grow at an average rate of 1.6% per year from 2024 to 2029, with total revenue peaking in 2028, driven by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 and fibre expansion by cable and fibre internet service providers (ISPs). The new growth forecast exceeds that made by the analyst in January 2025, the increase attributed to a rise in the number of homes passed with fibre.

The study noted that passive optical network equipment revenue is expected to grow from $10.7bn in 2024 to $12.6bn in 2029, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Central and Latin America, as well as fibre-to-the-room (FTTR) and 50Gbps deployments in China. Revenue for cable distributed access equipment – encompassing virtual CCAP, remote PHY Devices, remote MACPHY devices and remote OLTs – is expected to peak at $1.2bn in 2028, as operators continue their DOCSIS 4.0 and early fibre deployments.

Revenue for fixed wireless customer premises equipment (CPE) is expected to peak in 2025 and 2026, dominated by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and a growing number of 5G millimetre wave units. Revenue for Wi-Fi 7 residential routers and broadband CPE with wireless local area network (WLAN) is projected to reach $8.6bn by 2029, as the technology is rapidly adopted by consumers and service providers alike.

Commenting on the findings, Jeff Heynen, vice-president at Dell’Oro Group, said: “We continue to see broadband providers balance ongoing expansion of their networks while also deploying platforms that will allow them to deliver service convergence and customised broadband applications, while also incorporating AI and automation tools. Though market presence in the form of homes passed remains today’s priority, future success will be all about delivering customised service tiers based on attributes beyond speed.”

One company that made a huge bet on XGS-PON in 2022 is CityFibre, which is now hitting the deployment accelerator after gaining significant funding. The UK provider recently awarded £40,0000 to digital inclusion charity Cambridge Online as part of its new Community Fund scheme. The grant is one of four awarded to non-profit organisations in areas where CityFibre is rolling out connectivity under the auspices of Project Gigabit, the UK government’s £5bn programme to deliver gigabit access to hard-to-reach remote and rural locations.

As it aimed to fulfil a series of commitments to address barriers to digital inclusion and empower local communities as part of Project Gigabit, CityFibre said an estimated one in ten Cambridgeshire residents do not reap the benefits that being online has to offer.

Furthermore, according to the Cambridgeshire Digital Partnership, those with higher digital engagement could save up to £659 per year by being online. It added that regular online purchasers have better access to more exclusive deals and offers, and those who have an email address can benefit from faster “life admin” tasks, such as registering for online services like council tax, utility bills and banking.