Space comms reaches commercialisation inflection point

Research from the GSMA has found that the satellite-based communications industry is now transitioning from the pilot and validation stage to initial commercial deployments, with 109 telco-satellite partnerships now covering 70% of global mobile subscribers, and commercialisation set to unfold over the next two to three years as services evolve from SMS to voice to data. 

The Satellite and NTN tracker, Q2 2025 from the analysis arm of the global mobile industry trade association, GSMA Intelligence, highlighted the current competition in the market, and in addition to uncovering the increased amount of commercialisation found in the three months to the end of May 2025, key events in the sector included Starlink still dominating the industry – but with competition intensifying; Amazon’s Kuiper constellation entering the space race; and enterprise internet of things (IoT) presenting a large opportunity.

The report noted that the total number of 109 operators with services was an increase of four players compared with the end of February 2025, and that 27 of these were now live, an increase of two compared with the prior quarter and 82 in testing, two more than previously. Out of a total mobile connections footprint of 5.72 billion, the share of the total connections base covered by satellite and non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) was 66%, up two percentage points on February 2025.

Yet out of all the activity in the market, the GSMA noted that Amazon’s launch of its first 27 out of 3,200 planned Kuiper constellation satellites represented the biggest competitive development of the second quarter of 2025.

At 0.8% of target capacity, the analysis regarded the launch as a “small but significant” step for the tech giant. GSMA Intelligence believes Amazon’s strategic objectives will initially lie in the broadband market – either “not spots” or against higher-priced legacy ISPs in rural areas – and in ubiquitous, global coverage for its logistics operations.

Intentions for direct-to-cell (D2C) services were seen as less obvious considering the potential oversupply of capacity and the fact it doesn’t have a clear link to Amazon’s core businesses. The report stressed, though, that Amazon’s D2C ambitions could not be ruled out given the company’s history of entering new business areas.

One of the potentially interesting forthcoming battles will be between Kuiper and market leader Starlink, which was top in the market with 7,000 satellites and 10 telco partnerships. However, the study also observed that AST SpaceMobile has secured 30 planned telco relationships and that China’s national satellite efforts and established players like SES, Viasat and Iridium are preparing 2026 direct-to-cell launches, intensifying competitive pressure.

The report predicted that Starlink was likely to sustain its first-mover advantage, as AST’s service is unlikely to be widely available until 2026 and Lynk’s coverage does not largely overlap with Starlink.

However, GSMA Intelligence stressed this was not a 12-month game. D2C services from MSS providers, notably Viasat, SES and Iridium, are likely to come in 2026, in the S and L bands, and so, said the analyst, commercialisation was likely to play out over a two- to three-year period rather than being won or lost in the near term.

GSMA Intelligence suggested bigger questions concern service evolution (SMS to voice to data) and the viability of being able to offer these to a critical mass, considering the spectrum constraints and natural barriers due to the laws of physics.

In its previous report for Q1 2025, GSMA Intelligence noted that the IoT was of great interest given that the latest standards (Release 19) in the sector now incorporate new functionality for NTN services geared at IoT applications such as sensors, telematics and energy monitoring.

The survey found that 2.5-3.0B IoT devices were now addressable by satellite across logistics, agriculture and utilities. The survey data showed the big opportunity for the sector, with 20% of businesses facing daily critical operations delays from connectivity gaps, with a further 30% reporting weekly issues. Equipment maintenance, supply chain efficiencies and asset tracking are the top three categories of operations where satellite is seen as playing a supporting role.

GSMA Intelligence said the study highlighted that there was a window of opportunity to service this demand, and emphasised the need for versatility in satellite connectivity for transient assets.