Cable plant spending to grow steadily, Open RAN stabilising

Two studies from analyst Dell’Oro Group have provided cause for confidence in the prospects for the wired and wireless communications equipment markets, predicting that cable outside plant equipment revenues are expected to increase 86% by the end 2025, while the long-heralded open radio access network (Open RAN) sector is beginning to show signs of stabilisation, with preliminary data indicating that Open RAN revenues grew year-on-year in the second quarter.

Looking at the wired sector, the Cable outside plant equipment advanced research report found the cable outside plant equipment market will continue to heat up later in 2025, driven largely by a surge in 1.8 GHz amplifiers and DAA nodes to support remote PHY deployments. As full duplex 1.2 GHz amplifiers start shipping, significant volumes are expected in 2026.

Global cable outside plant equipment revenues are projected to peak in 2027, when the largest number of tier one operators in North America are expected to be in the middle of their amplifier, node and passives upgrades for Docsis 4.0.

Indeed, the North American market is forecast to remain the largest region for cable outside plant equipment revenue, as operators in other regions either continue with Docsis 3.1 or increasingly overbuild with fibre. Generic access platform (GAP) nodes are expected to ramp up in the North American market in 2025 and 2026.

“Tier one cable operators, particularly in the North American market, are in the beginning stages of a multi-year investment cycle to boost broadband speeds, while also dramatically improving the intelligence and automation capabilities of their outside plant,” said Jeff Heynen, vice-president of broadband access and home networking market research at Dell’Oro Group. “These upgrades will result in a significant increase in spending on optical nodes, amplifiers and passive equipment, including taps and hardline splitters, through 2029.”

Looking at the world of mobile, the analyst observed that Open RAN has made significant progress since the O-RAN Alliance was formed in 2018 to “reshape the RAN industry and ecosystem towards more intelligent, open, virtualised and interoperable networks”. However, Dell’Oro stated that results have been mixed so far.

The company’s Open RAN study found cumulative Open RAN revenues are approaching $10bn, the Open Fronthaul interface has become an increasingly important requirement, and most leading operators now regard O-RAN, Cloud RAN, and AI-driven RAN as core pillars of their next-generation RAN roadmaps. Yet, multi-supplier RAN adoption and expectations remain limited.

Dell’Oro also believes market traction has proven uneven. While Open RAN initially scaled rapidly, fuelled by large-scale deployments in Japan and the US, after this sharp rise, total Open RAN revenues declined by roughly 40% in two years, as activity outside early adopters failed to offset the slowdown in the US and Japan. While some moderation was expected, the pace of deceleration was sharper than anticipated, in part because of weaker 5G investments overall.

However, the analyst’s data has indicated that Open RAN revenues grew year-on-year in Q2 2025 and were nearly flat annually in the first half, supported by easier comparisons, stronger capex tied to existing Open RAN deployments, and increased activity among early majority adopters.

The analyst’s long-term view on Open RAN growth prospects remains favourable. Although it feels that near-term headwinds and business case challenges persist, the broader trajectory continues to point towards greater openness, virtualisation, intelligence and automation across the RAN.

It does point out that the attractiveness of a multi-supplier RAN model continues to be limited. Multi-supplier RAN is projected to reach $2bn to $3bn by 2029.