If respected IT market analystRichard
Holwayis right, the end of the recession is
likely to bring a world where if it ain't mobile and on the net, it
ain't gonna sell.
Holway predicts "explosive growth" of mobile internet devices as
users upgrade to smartphones and netbooks to access "rich content"
anywhere, any time, any place at super-fast speeds.
Some analysts expect netbooks sales to double, or even treble,
to between 22 million and 32 million next year.
Juniper Networks says yearly sales of smartphones will nearly
double to 300 million a year by 2013.
Seeds of
change
Even so, companies will not change the way they do things just
because of a recession. Holway notes that between 80% and 90% of IT
budgets are used for maintaining and enhancing existing
systems.
Charles Ward, a director of Intellect, the IT suppliers' trade
association,agrees that mostcompany budgets are committed to
existing projects for the next year or two.
He cites Intellect as an example. "We cannot change our
technology platform until we are sure we can get what we need from
other sources."
But Ward admits that Intellect carries the seeds of the switch
to a mobilised workplace. Intellect staffoften workfrom home,
andWardtravels with only a BlackBerry, and perhaps a laptop or USB
memory stick if he is making presentations.
High-speed mobile
broadband
For now, "mobile user" mostly seems to mean "mobile consumer".
But mobile network operators plan to build
high-
speed broadband networks that allow mobile internet devices
(MIDs) to connect at 2mbps and faster.
These will attract corporate users, not least because they can
untether workers from expensive town centre office space. Media
companies such as the Guardian and the Telegraph have already
converted their reporters to Google Apps for office and field
work.
For the information and telecommunications industry, who wins
the mobile operating system battle is crucial. With netbooks
selling at £150-£350, around the cost of a phone, there is no room
for an expensive OS.
Technology in
development
Microsoft launched a new version of
Windows Mobile last week, but its market share lags Nokia's
Symbian and Research in Motion's
BlackBerry
(see table).
Canalys mobile analyst Tim Shepherd says Microsoft has addressed
deficiencies in the OS, but shifted its focus to consumers.
"It is still looking for revenue from licences. With neither
Symbian nor the Android/Linux community doing that, Windows Mobile
is going to struggle," he says.
But, Holway says, users do not really care about the hardware
and software, as long as it works and lets them do cool things.
That is why Symbian and Android are funding competitions to attract
application builders and help them to market their products.
Google expects Android devices to become terminals for Google
Apps and Maps, and Nokia this week confirmed its interest in
entering the netbook market.
Now is the right time for CIOs to talk with their peers in HR
and finance about introducing mobile technology.
| Worldwide smart phone
market split by OS vendor, Q4 2008 | |
|---|
| OS vendor | Global share |
| Access | 0.9% |
| Apple | 11.6% |
| Linux | 3.8% |
| Microsoft | 14.2% |
| Open Handset Alliance | 1.7% |
| RIM | 19.8% |
| Symbian | 47.9% |
| Source: Canalys, smartphone analysis, Q4 2008 | |
UK software and IT services
market trends
The UK software and IT services (SITS) market is expected to
shrink in real terms for the first time since 2003, according
toTechMarketView, a market research firm owned by analysts Richard
Holway and Anthony Miller.
Holway says the value of SITS sales dropped 1% last year.
Heexpects a further decline of 2% this year before growth returns
in late 2010.
"Even these bleak forecasts depend on economic conditions not
deteriorating further," Holway says.
Holway blames private sector cutbacks mainly, saying IT
suppliers with government business will fare better.
He expects spending on training to suffer most, with less impact
on business process outsourcing, which is steady at 8% growth.
But he expects application outsourcing to grow faster by
2011.
"By thetime the recession ends, we expect the SITS landscape to
be much changed, with many of today's leading players... seeing
their positions eroded," Holway says.
"We expect the next phase of SITS to bebuilt mainly around the
mobile user, where the distinction between consumers and the
corporate users will be ever more blurred."
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