Australian telecoms growth predicted to fall

Research consultancy BuddeComm has predicted the Australian telecoms market will grow just 2.8% in the 2008 financial year to $36.3 billion, driven predominantly by data and broadband services. This is down from the 3.1% estimated this financial year.

The 2007 Australia - Telecoms Analyses and Forecasts report predicts the data services market will jump 11% for the 2008 fiscal year, the same as FY07, from $6.15 billion to about $6.82 billion.

The mobiles market, on the other hand, is expected to continue falling with a 4% increase forecast for FY08 to $12.12 billion. This represents a fall of 1% on the previous year, and is significantly less than the 11% growth rates for both the 2004 and 2005 fiscal years.

The fixed-voice segment of the market is expected to slow overall growth, with a slip of 3%, from $12.03 billion (FY07) to $11.67 billion (FY08). This will come on the back of an estimated 2% drop this financial year.

"The data market, including broadband, has now taken over as the main driver of growth," says BuddeComm managing director, Paul Budde. "Given its overall market share in 2006 of 16.8% is still relatively small, its impact on the total market figure is only moderate. This will progressively pick up over the next five years to 2011."

Other findings in the report include:

• More fixed-wireless alliances will emerge in 2007 and 2008 &mdash such as the partnering of Soul, Austar and Unwired &mdash as triple-play models evolve;

• Telstra still dominates with 44% market share at retail value, 70% at wholesale and 95% of profits;

• Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) will continue to struggle in the absence of a killer business model, as will WiMAX, which is still dealing with mobility and other standardisation issues;

• The future of broadband video lies in personal video communications, user- generated content websites, news and other forms of online social networking, such as YouTube and MySpace;

• The health care, education and energy sectors will capitalise on new faster, higher-capacity broadband infrastructure to deliver more cost-efficient, timely services.