Julien Eichinger - stock.adobe.c
Context forecasting resilient 2026 for distributors
A number of factors will keep momentum going into next year as customers continue to embrace AI
At this time of year, the sentiment everyone wants to share is that the forthcoming 12 months will be better than the ones the channel has just experienced.
There are always hopes that trading conditions will strengthen, and that customers will be more willing to sign off purchase orders, and reading the latest European IT distribution forecast from Context provides some support for that optimism.
The forecast is indicating that demand across major European markets, including the UK, is going to remain resilient, even with global conflicts, political tensions and economic challenges ongoing.
A combination of factors are helping 2026 look solid, including the continuing PC refresh, infrastructure upgrades as customers look to accommodate more artificial intelligence (AI) workloads and the general need for the channel to help with digital transformation efforts.
Context is expecting overall European distribution sales to increase by 5.4% in Q4, and to keep that momentum going into the year ahead.
“Across the distribution landscape, the market is being reshaped by two parallel forces: the urgency of traditional refresh cycles and the early foundations of AI-driven investment”, said Marie-Christine Pygott, senior analyst at Context. “This combination is creating a rare moment of synchronised demand across PCs, servers and components.”
If last year was one of AI evaluation, then 2025 has seen more adoption, and the resulting realisation by customers of the need for infrastructure upgrading and PC system refreshes. “2026 will not bring dramatic expansion, but it will bring clarity,” said Pygott. “As businesses move from AI experimentation to structured deployment, distributors with strong data insights, stable supply chains and deep infrastructure partnerships will be best placed to capture the next wave of opportunity.”
AI capabilities
Recent PC market figures from Context underlined how the shift from users towards Windows 11 PCs had been driving sales in the past couple of quarters, but once that factor had been exhausted, the reasons for upgrading would focus more on AI capabilities.
There have also been increasing demands on networks and security because of increasing AI workloads and the need to ensure the technology does not expose organisations to higher levels of risk.
Despite the high levels of hype around AI, many customers are still at the early stages of adoption, and many in the channel are predicting that will be a key area and generator of growth next year.
“2026 will mark the moment when AI stops being the headline and becomes the habit,” said Christian Pedersen, chief product officer at IFS. “After years of experimentation and hype, artificial intelligence is quietly embedding itself into the way work gets done. The question is no longer whether AI works, but how well it performs in the background of daily operations.
“The fascination with ‘AI-first’ strategies will give way to seamless integration within business systems and physical processes,” he said. “AI will move from being a feature to being the foundation. In manufacturing, energy and service sectors, it will quietly power scheduling, inventory optimisation and predictive maintenance without anyone labelling it ‘AI’. This shift is healthy. It signals that AI is entering its industrial phase – embedded, standardised and measurable. Organisations will compete not on whether they use AI, but on how effectively it drives performance.”
Context noted that demand in Q4 for personal systems and infrastructure were driving sales across western European distributors, while telecoms, peripherals and print still face headwinds.
