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PC market should be bracing for tougher 2026
The Windows 11 migration effect will run its course over the next few months, and the industry will have to accept the sales of the past few months might not be replicated
The PC market has benefitted from the upgrade path many users have trodden to Windows 11, but once those purchases have been made, things could get tough.
That warning has come from market watcher Context, which has been tracking the hardware market and noted the positive impact this year of migration away from Windows 10, which had support withdrawn last month.
That deadline partly explains why the Western European PC market had its strongest performances in years last month, according to Context, which analyses sales information coming from distributors across the region.
The UK, along with Germany, France, Italy and Spain, delivered impressive growth in PC sales last month. Overall desktop PC revenues increased by 48%, with consumer demand for high-end gaming systems helping drive that hike.
Laptop sales were up by 26%, with the migration towards Windows 11 highlighted as the dominant factor driving that rise. Tablets also benefitted from the overall surge, with an increase of 21%, with demand from hybrid work environments and entertainment uses having an impact.
“Windows 10’s end-of-support deadline has become one of the strongest upgrade triggers we’ve seen in a decade,” said James Bates, senior retail analyst at Context.
“Many consumers who delayed replacement now find that their devices simply cannot run the operating system required for secure use,” he added. “This aligns with the natural refresh cycle of the large number of notebooks purchased during the pandemic.”
Higher-priced sales
High-performing systems were in demand, from both gamers and creators, which benefitted the channel as a result of higher-priced devices being sold in volume. The search for systems that could deliver power, cooling and longevity were popular with users.
“What stands out is the willingness of consumers to step up to noticeably more powerful hardware,” said Bates. “People are not just replacing old machines; they’re upgrading to systems that can support modern software, gaming and creative workloads. It shows a clear rise in expectations around PC capability.”
The PC industry has been actively promoting the AI-capable product line, and there are signs that customers across Europe have been open to investing in machines with neural processing units and the promise of increased autonomy.
In terms of user priorities, the AI element appears to be after the need to migrate off an unsupported operating system and the desire for more powerful machines. Other analysts have stressed that AI is not yet as powerful a driver for investment as the industry, with its marketing campaigns and raft of products, perhaps hoped for.
The analysts are warning that the sales surge could well be short-lived once the upgrades have been made and users have shifted to a system that has been chosen because of the attraction of longevity.
Context is expecting the absence of a Windows end-of-life support to be a factor next year, with refresh cycles moving back to the more common multi-year period.
“The sustainability of today’s premium price points is far from guaranteed,” said Bates. “When the Windows deadline disappears, the AI PC message will need to mature quickly. Consumers will expect compelling, demonstrable benefits if they’re going to continue investing at current levels. As the industry moves into early 2026, the challenge will be to convert this deadline-driven surge into a more sustained period of innovation-led growth. The extent to which vendors can communicate as well as deliver the real-world value of AI-enabled devices will determine whether the market holds its momentum, or risks a sharp correction.”
