"1. In 2013, business conditions will follow the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, but it will be a busy year for IT and other outsourcers. My caveat is that fortune will favour the bold and creative.
2 .We'll see more big companies finally adopting public cloud at enterprise level, and we'll see some of the banks and other financial institutions using public cloud for parts of their businesses.
3. The EU will publish standards and regulations for public cloud that will cause havoc with the US tech sector and the US government will step in. All cloud providers operating in Europe will have to radically overhaul their contracts, especially in the areas of data protection, sovereignty, mobility and portability.
4. While public cloud will become more important, IT outsourcing will become even harder for complacent or unimaginative suppliers. We'll see even more industrialised, shorter-term, multi-sourced IT outsourcing deals. Only those suppliers who can offer really smart solutions will flourish. For the rest margins will sink even lower.
5. We'll see growth beyond IT infrastructure outsourcing into applications development management, but it will follow the same industrialised route as for IT infrastructure outsourcing.
6. In BPO, only those providers with credible platforms that offer true platform BPO will succeed. Large-scale FTE plays in routine BPO like F&A will flounder and ultimately go the same way as ITO.
7. Only offshore IT and BPO providers that achieve the nirvana of non-linear growth will put on significant revenue and margin growth in 2013.
8. We'll see an upsurge in serious cyber-attacks from hostile states or state-sponsored cyber terrorists on UK government, infrastructure and business. Unfortunately, one or two will succeed and cause serious damage.
9. The UK public sector will open up for massive outsourcing opportunities, both at central and local levels, though they will not be called outsourcing and many will look like privatisation, with the government retaining equity stakes in new outsourcing vehicles.
10. There will again be change at the top in HP (probably the safest prediction of all)."
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