The world in 2018 (or not)

Now I’m not saying that I get everything right about the future. But I can certainly spot the excesses of other futurists. The latest example is IBM’s predictions for the next five years.

The most important thing about forecasts is to understand the human, societal and legal blockers, as well as the limitations of technology and developers to deliver on promises. Against this background, IBM’s suggestions seem rather naive, especially against a five year timeline.  

The classroom will learn you

Not only is it bad English but it seems rather sinister to suggest that technology should assess children’s potential and be relied on to identify dyslexia instantly.

Buying local will beat online

I couldn’t think of anything more likely to send me quickly to the exit than the prospect of a salesperson intercepting me in the aisle in which the products I’m interested are located.

Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well

The prospect of doctors determining my medication based exclusively on DNA readings fills me with concern. I prefer a human diagnosis based on a richer set of symptoms and experience.

A digital guardian will protect you online

The idea that a digital guardian learns about a user and authenticates transactions is a sound one in theory but will citizens be comfortable with a third party system that continuously shadows their behaviour? I think not.

The city will help you live in it

The prospect of large scale urban sprawl is bad enough but the idea that decisions on urban services are directed by crowdsourcing is enough to make central planning a desirable option.  

As a Daily Telegraph letter writer might put it “Am I alone in thinking this?”    

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