The
nascent market for ultra-mobile devices (UMDs)—such as
ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs), netbooks, and mobile Internet devices
(MIDs)—is already complex, and will become more complicated as it
grows according to a new survey from ABI Research.
Over the next five years, ABI
expects
the total revenues earned by vendors in the UMD market to increase
from $3.5 billion in 2008 to nearly $27 billion in 2013.”
By the end of 2008, ABI predicts that retail sales will account
for only 14% of shipments, and UMDs provided by mobile operators
comprising 30% of total shipments with the balance sold directly by
manufacturers.
Over five years, however, that distribution mix will change
significantly as network operators cease subsidising UMDs so as to
boost services revenues. By 2013, ABI expects only a fifth of UMDs
to be operator-sourced while retail sales are expected to account
for 75% of shipments.
In 2013 more than half of all UMDs will likely be powered by x86
processors with the balance based on ARM processors. Significantly,
and increasing the attractiveness of price/performance, ABI
predicts that in the next five years Linux will outnumber Windows
devices by two to one across all UMDs. This is expected to occur
despite the higher return rate for Linux products (compared to
Windows products) experienced by netbook vendors today.
Some MIDs will offer cellular voice services, foresees ABI
Research principal analyst Philip Solis. “MIDs without cellular
voice will be seen by users as ‘companion devices’. They will be
used in addition to mobile phones and not necessarily carried at
all times. Cellular voice-enabled MIDs, in contrast, will be able
to replace phones entirely; they will become the new high-end
smartphones.”