It's been a year of innovation and disruption.
Virtualization is changing the data center, social media is
redefining corporate transparency and Software as a Service
(
Here are nine reliable predictions for the coming year. And one
Hail Mary:
- Virtual everything
Virtualization was the hottest tech buzzword of 2006 and it will be
smoking in 2007. There's a lot to like about dramatically improving
server utilization rates while enhancing control and management of
IT resources.
Server virtualization could also be a major step forward in
security. As usual, the industry is way out in front of its
customers on this, and you can expect battles over standards and
market leadership to erupt. In the meantime, users will tiptoe
cautiously into a virtualized world. But this concept has a lot of
staying power.
- New definition of alignment
You've heard about IT-business alignment for years. This time is
different, though. Chastened by the budget cuts of the last
recession, IT managers are now thinking in terms of how to support
the business rather than how to reinvent the business. It's a big
difference and probably more realistic. You can actually be an
innovative IT leader, even if your job is just to keep the lights
on.
- Blogs go inside
While the investment world frets over whether
Web 2.0 is the next Internet bubble, a revolution is quietly
going on behind corporate firewalls. The tools of social media --
blogs, wikis, podcasts and online video -- are being used
internally by business users to improve collaboration, speed up
project schedules and improve corporate memory. Users love the ease
with which they can set up blogs and wikis to communicate with each
other and with partners. But they won't necessarily cut IT in on
the action. For all the benefits that social media tools offer,
they could become an out-of-control nightmare for IT organizations
that don't throw a rope around them.
- Linux gets a desktop foothold
I've long been a skeptic about Linux as a serious alternative to
Windows on the desktop, and I still think that will never happen in
the U.S.. However, some trends are converging to make the open
source operating system a major player offshore. New distributions
like Ubuntu Linux are as easy
as Windows to install and use. Also, the
One Laptop Per Child project
that has been incubating for several years will ship its $100
product in 2007. It's possible that hundreds of millions of
children will grow up using Linux, making them tough customers for
a commercial operating system. Unless you're a gamer or you depend
on a handful of brand-name software products that run only on
Windows, then the combination of Linux, OpenOffice, Firefox and
Thunderbird will satisfy your needs just fine.
- The SaaS express picks up speed
Seven years ago, San Francisco-based Salesforce.com Inc.
rejuvenated the dying application service provider market with its
hosted CRM service. Today, Salesforce.com is worth $4.5 billion and
there are hundreds of companies springing up using the model now
known as SaaS. Software venture capitalist Ann Winblad recently
told me that every new business plan she sees for application
software companies now calls for a SaaS delivery model. Users love
the simplicity and time-to-productivity benefits, but IT
organizations are still mostly resistant. Lots of issues need to be
worked out, but this model is here to stay, whether IT likes it or
not. And on that note…
- Salesforce.com becomes the next SAP
Maybe this won't happen entirely in 2007, but it's hard to see many
obstacles to Salesforce.com's continued success. The company will
step up its acquisition activities in the new year, diversifying
its product line into mainstream accounting applications and
possibly collaborative software. Its App Exchange integration
platform will become the leading choice for third-party developers.
Salesforce.com is positioning itself to become the power broker in
SaaS. At this point, you've got to like its chances.
- VoIP by a knockout
One analyst firm recently predicted that
three-quarters of corporate desktops would be using Voice over
Internet Protocol (VoIP) within three years. That may be
optimistic, but you only have to look at the list of blue chip
companies now doing large-scale rollouts to realize that VoIP is
mainstream. Now the action moves on to applications, which is when
things really get interesting.
- Pressure builds on Microsoft
Its stock has barely moved in five years, it's being trounced on
the Web by Google and it faces a slew of open source competition.
Hard to believe that not long ago, Microsoft was considered a
monopoly. The company is responding in all the right ways, but it
no longer has the leverage with Windows it once did. Efforts to
reach out to the open source community and become a gentler and
more approachable company are praiseworthy, but Microsoft faces
formidable challenges in nearly every market and an uncertain
future. In 2007, look for a big push in the enterprise along with a
new focus on collaboration.
- Corporate security rethought
In most companies, information and physical security have
historically been separate disciplines. That's all going to change.
As the devices and people used to secure physical assets are
digitally enabled, it will become more compelling than ever for the
two functions to be combined. After all, shouldn't your
surveillance cameras connect to facial recognition software? With
IT playing an increasingly important role in compliance,
organizations will start to merge their physical and info security
operations under the CIO. This will create an unholy battle in many
companies, but it's the right thing to do.
And finally, one big Hail Mary prediction:
- Google buys eBay
It's not so far-fetched. Google's $140 billion market
capitalization gives it the bank account to pick up the company
that epitomizes the "long tail." Google's own excursions into
online commerce have been largely unsuccessful, and eBay would give
it not only the world's largest online market but also the leading
payment system with PayPal. There is almost no overlap in the
businesses, but many eBay customers advertise on Google. Combine
the two companies, and thousands of merchants become almost wholly
dependent on Google for their livelihood.
Paul Gillin is a technology writer and consultant and former
editor-in-chief of TechTarget. His Web site is
www.gillin.com.