Over the past 40 years computers have transformed social
and business life, despite remaining pretty unintelligent. Now the
challenge is to get them thinking for themselves, writes Cliff
Saran
When we began looking back on the 40 years of IT since Computer
Weekly was launched, one thing became apparent. No matter how much
technology has improved, no matter how far microelectronics has
revolutionised the computer industry, computers are basically doing
the same type of job.
In the 60s and 70s, science fiction writers presented a bleak
future as artificial intelligence battled with human beings.
Experts spoke of mass redundancies as automation took over. And the
latest buzz was the paperless office.
Yet, by and large, computers still only do what they are told to
do, and they are pretty useless without a program that instructs
them, step by step, how to perform a task. Luckily for the human
race, intelligence within these machines is still rudimentary.
There is little chance that microchips will rule the world.
Instead, the past four decades has seen the use of IT explode in
ways few people could have predicted. Computers do not have much
intelligence on their own, but they have supported billions of
business decisions by providing users with business intelligence
data.
IT has enabled businesses to connect both to their customers and
with suppliers and business partners. Call centres have given the
public a way to keep in contact with a business or government
department 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Sales orders, financial transactions and communications are sent
in microseconds around the world. Customers can order products
directly over the internet and the supplier's warehouse
automatically dispatches the goods.
PC maker Dell came from nowhere to become the largest PC
manufacturer in the world by going direct to the customer and
allowing them to customise the PC they want to purchase. Amazon.com
changed the way we buy books, CDs and DVDs.
The electronics industry has been revolutionised as researchers
push the boundaries of integrated circuit design, allowing the
creation of faster, smaller, more complex chips. And this has
driven the adoption of IT into everyday lives. Even a humble
toaster has a microprocessor with a program for the defrost, toast
and cancel controls.
Who could have imagined we would all be carrying mobile phones
with built in video cameras, capable of sending and receiving
e-mail and accessing the internet? Not too long ago this was real
James Bond stuff.
When Sony introduced the Walkman in 1979 it changed the way
people listened to music - 60 minutes of music in a portable tape
player. Today, thanks to breakthroughs in computer memory and hard
discs, MP3 players can hold thousands of hours of music on a single
memory stick. A computer that used to be the size of a room now
comfortably fits on a wristwatch.
Today there are two main challenges. The first is finding a use
for the massive amount of computer power at our fingertips. After
all, computers are still pretty dumb on the evolutionary scale of
artificial intelligence.
Even if an application can be found, the second problem is the
management and technical difficulties that must be overcome in
rolling out any IT project.
It is not that hard to demonstrate a proof of concept. But can
the application scale, and will end-users be prepared to run it?
Will the technical staff and the business consultants be
sufficiently skilled to implement and deploy the system?
Can the software and hardware be rolled out cost-effectively? Is
licensing prohibitive? Is the IT architecture and coding resilient
enough to enable all end-users to run the application, without
risking crashes, hacking attacks or the need for constant
patching?
One of the themes of Computer Weekly during our first 40 years
has been the need for strong project management. It can be the
difference between success and failure. As the IT industry
continues to mature, project management will move further up the
agenda.
If we can get this right, maybe one day intelligent IT systems
will improve the quality of our home and work lives, computers will
be self-managing, and downtime will be a thing of the past.
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