Workplace Net users in Europe will rise to 77 million by 2004. But
there are not enough skilled IT staff to let Europe's e-business
expand. Keith Nuthall reports
With growth in Internet use higher in Europe than anywhere else
in the world, it is clear that in e-business Europe should no
longer be considered a poor relation to the US. But the
International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned that the
significant progress made in Europe could suffer due to a shortfall
in trained computer professionals.
A report for the ILO's European meeting warns of a "skills gap
in Europe's information and communications technology (ICT)
workforce, which risks becoming a critical bottleneck to the
expansion of IT industries".
Statistics in the Globalising Europe document show that these
claims are not just bluster, aimed at encouraging governments to
invest in employment training. The document highlights the fact
that Europe now has more than 50 million Internet users, with
Internet usage "growing more rapidly than in any other region of
the world".
It adds that the number of Internet users in the European
workplace is expected to grow from 29 million to 77 million by
2004. However, the report predicts that while jobs in European ICT
industries will increase by more than 8.1% annually in coming
years, (from 9 million to 12.3 million), the number of unfilled
vacancies could triple, from 500,000 in 1998 to 1.6 million in
2002. The report estimates that the skills gap has cost $106bn in
lost gross domestic product since 1998 "and will continue to do so
in the absence of skills".
The report confirms that the difficulty in finding the IT staff
is a Europe-wide problem, affecting both users and suppliers
equally.
"A critical bottleneck to the expansion of ICT is the shortage
of skills," it said. "ICT has created a vast demand for people with
computer skills to develop and maintain online information systems
and to provide the type of services - such as e-commerce - which
these systems have brought into existence.
"The skills required for the new jobs typically differ quite
substantially from those of workers made redundant. The extent to
which the latter will be retained and redeployed will depend a
great deal on whether other workers are available who already have
such training. In view of Europe's ageing population, the challenge
of retraining is an especially important policy area to
address."
The report adds a footnote that will be especially unwelcome in
countries with fewer employment regulations such as the UK:
"Retraining and employment are more likely to occur in countries
and in organisations where workers have a high degree of employment
security.
"Employment protection legislation has the effect of making
retraining and redeployment relatively more advantageous for the
employer from a financial point of view."
ILO director-general Juan Somavia, said, "Enterprises across the
continent are facing the challenge, but this is not an economy in
which anyone can afford to sit on their laurels."
The skills gap's likely impact on Europe
The ILO paper highlighted the consequences of this skills gap,
none of which make comfortable reading.
- High unemployment is likely to remain in areas of weak IT
development, while regions with the highest growth will be
restricted by the skills gap and so be less able to take up the
slack and provide more jobs for the European economy. There is
particular concern that eastern Europe could be the loser here,
because of the general low level of IT expertise
- Training will increasingly become a top priority for
governments, trade unions and employers
- Governments will be under pressure from businesses asking for a
relaxation in immigration restrictions, because the IT sector is
expected to grow at a faster rate than new European workers can be
trained. It will be easier and quicker for firms to recruit from
abroad, notably from countries such as India which have a large
pool of skilled IT professionals
- This process might lead to a brain drain for some developing
countries, hampering their drive for prosperity
- Companies may also consider relocating to countries where IT
professionals can be employed, with the consequential loss of
employment to Europe